Current Affairs

Current Affairs

SUBSTANTIALLY more people believe the ruling People's National Party (38.3 per cent) was having -- at least up to mid-August -- a greater impact with its election campaign than the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (29.2 per cent).

And among those who believe that the momentum is with the ruling party, they feel it has gained the edge mostly because of its programmes, the weight of its support among the electorate and its visibility on the campaign trail.

For those who are more excited by the JLP's campaign, they have been turned on by the party's visibility, a belief that after 13 years of a PNP administration it is a time for change, and that based on its past performance in government, the JLP would do a better job than the PNP.

The Stone Organisation asked people about their perceptions of the parties on the campaign trail in the opinion poll they conducted for the Observer on August 17 and 18, using a sample of 1,202 persons, aged 18 and over, from 40 communities across the island. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

In terms of capturing the imagination of voters, the two small parties, the National Democratic Movement and the United People's Party (UPP), appeared as mere blips, underlining the fact that the election is almost a straight fight between the PNP and the JLP.

However, 27 per cent of potential voters did not know if the parties were having an impact in the campaign and 5.3 per cent were moved by none.

When Stone sought to find out why people felt that a particular party was having an impact, the largest single bloc of 14.6 per cent, in favour of the PNP, said it had gained momentum because it had good programmes and had caused the country to make progress.

This was followed by 8.7 per cent who suggested there was just support of the people for the PNP, while 5.7 per cent said that it was more visible than the JLP.

Another 3.5 per cent said that neither the JLP nor its leader, Edward Seaga, were credible.

For the JLP, the top reason, among seven per cent, for people believing that it was having the greatest impact, was its visibility, followed by the 6.2 per cent who said it was time for a change and 5.3 per cent who raised its past economic record.

Economic hardship during PNP rule was the issue for 3.8 per cent. Surprisingly, a mere 0.6 per cent cited the JLP's proposal for free education, an issue with which the Opposition appeared to gain some purchase.

But the time of the poll might have been too early to capture the full impact of any positive views for the JLP, driven by the education issue.

Question:

In this the period leading up to the general elections, which political party in your view has been having more impact than the others? Why do you say so?

Answers:

The PNP.....................................................................................38.3%

The JLP......................................................................................29.2%

The NDM (NJA).........................................................................0.1%

The UPP.......................................................................................0.1%

None of them...............................................................................5.3%

Don't know................................................................................27.0%

..................................................................................................100%

Why do you say the PNP (multiple answers)

PNP has good programmes/it has made progress...................14.6%

It has the support of the people..................................................8.7%

The PNP is more visible.............................................................5.7%

The JLP and Seaga are not credible...........................................3.5%

The PNP helps poor people........................................................3.3%

It has sound economic management..........................................2.2%

It is bribing more people/it is more corrupt.............................. 0.8%

Don't know................................................................................ 4.2%

Why do you say the JLP (multiple answers)

The JLP is more visible..............................................................7.0%

It's JLP time now/time for a change..........................................6.4%

Past economic performance better than PNP's.........................5.3%

Too much hard times under PNP rule........................................3.8%

Less injustice in JLP times.........................................................1.3%

There would be free education under JLP.................................0.6%

Too many scandals under PNP...................................................0.4%

Don't know..................................................................................7.6%

Stone comment:

This is one of those questions where a mix of perception of a particular party and party choice form an attitudinal response which attempts to gauge the respondents' views of the profiles of the political parties seeking office in the upcoming elections.

Close to 15 per cent of those who say the PNP has been having more impact speak of tangibles in terms of 'programmes' and 'progress', while non-tangibles like 'it has the support of the people' score in at just under nine per cent.

Those who believe the JLP is having more impact mention the JLP as being the more visible party (seven per cent) and 'time for a change' (6.4 per cent)

5.3 per cent believe the JLP is having more impact because it is highlighting its past economic performance which they say is better than the PNP's.