Portia, Seaga in dead heat for PM job
Observer/Stone Poll
Observer Stone Reporter
Wednesday, February 27, 2002
PORTIA Simpson's resurgence as the person who voters believe is suitable to occupy Jamaica House has been underlined in a dead heat race with Edward Seaga as the person who Jamaicans say they would like to see become the prime minister after the next general election.
In the February Observer/Stone poll, Simpson Miller, the tourism minister, had a 22.8 per cent support for the prime minister's job, marginally ahead, statistically insignificant when compared with the 22.5 per cent for Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) boss, Seaga.
Simpson Miller and Seaga are trailed by Prime Minister P J Patterson, 15 per cent, whose support for the continued leadership of the country was statistically the same as when the Stone Organisation previously asked this question last September.
However, Simpson Miller, the populist grass roots politician who voters say is in tune with the concerns of the poor, made a dramatic 13 percentage point gain between September and February.
Last July, 21 per cent of Stone's sample rated Simpson Miller as the best person to lead the country, 10 percentage points behind Seaga. Three months later, backing for Simpson Miller to get the country's top job had plummeted to nine per cent.
With her gains in the latest poll, Simpson Miller is 14.5 points ahead of Peter Phillips, the security minister, against whom she is expected to tussle for the post-Patterson leadership of the People's National Party (PNP). Phillips was, statistically, tied with Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas (7.8 per cent), the leader of the fledgling United People's Party (UPP).
Indeed, Simpson Miller's resurgence is further underlined by another question posed by the pollsters, which was reported on earlier.
Last July, when Stone asked potential voters who was the best person to lead the PNP at that time, Simpson Miller had a 41 per cent support, against 18 per cent for her boss, Patterson. But in the September survey this rating had slipped to 25 per cent.
In February, support for Simpson Miller as the next best person to lead her party was 36 per cent, against 15 per cent each for Patterson and Phillips.
Question:
Which political leader would you like to see become prime minister after the next elections?
Answers:
Portia Simpson Miller.........................................................22.8%
Edward Seaga....................................................................22.5%
P J Patterson......................................................................15.2%
Peter Phillips.........................................................................8.3%
Antonnette Haughton............................................................7.8%
Bruce Golding.......................................................................2.3%
Karl Blythe............................................................................0.4%
Hyacinth Bennett..................................................................0.2%
Others...................................................................................1.7%
None.....................................................................................2.5%
Don't know......................................................................... 16.3%
Total.....................................................................................100%
Stone comment:
Tourism Minister Portia Simpson Miller (22.8%) and Opposition Leader Edward Seaga (22.5%) top the list of those persons our respondents would like to see become prime minister after the next elections.
Prime Minister P J Patterson is in third place (15.2%), followed by Security Minister Peter Phillips (8.3%).
Political newcomer Antonnette Haughton, head of the United People's Party, follows with 7.8%. Ex-National Democratic Movement president, Bruce Golding, scores sixth on the eight-person list with 2.3%.