| PNP widens lead Patterson now favoured to keep job as PM |
Observer/Stone Reporter Friday, October 11, 2002 |
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| PJ Patterson |
THE People's National Party (40.6 per cent) widened its lead over the Jamaica Labour Party (31.6 per cent), to nine percentage points, and P J Patterson was a long favourite, ahead of the JLP's leader, Edward Seaga, to keep the job of prime minister of Jamaica.
A poll conducted for the Observer by the Stone Organisation between September 28 and October 3, also showed that Jamaicans, by a substantial margin, viewed the PNP as the best choice to govern the country after next Wednesday's general elections.
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| Edward Seaga |
This poll was based on a sample of 1,206 persons, aged 18 and over, from 40 communities across Jamaica. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
When Stone previously polled for the Observer in mid-September, the PNP (37 per cent) enjoyed a 5.3 percentage point lead over the JLP (31.7 per cent). In that survey, the PNP had suffered a mild -- 0.8 percentage point -- slippage in its support, compared to a poll done in August. The JLP, though, endured a deeper 2.7 percentage point drop in its own support.
But in the fortnight between the mid-September poll and the one now being reported on, the PNP made a 3.6 percentage point surge in voter support, while the JLP remained static on its earlier numbers.
With 78 per cent of enumerated voters (82 per cent of the eligible persons) having told Stone that they intend to cast their ballots on Wednesday, the PNP's support translated to 52 per cent of the likely voters. This compares to 40 per cent for the JLP.
A little over two per cent of the enumerated voters wouldn't say for whom they would vote and 1.8 per cent were undecided.
Ten per cent said that they would not vote, and 12 per cent had not made up their mind on whether they would vote, though Stone said that they were unlikely to cast ballots.
This poll was conducted after Bruce Golding's much-heralded return to the JLP, from which he had resigned to form the National Democratic Movement (NDM), but before he had an opportunity to delve 2 2 fully into the JLP's campaign.
A view that the Opposition party's campaign has gathered steam, and support, in recent days, will be tested in a new poll now being completed by Stone, whose findings will be published on Sunday.
In a very sharp reversal of his earlier fortunes, Patterson (41.1 per cent) nearly doubled Seaga (21.5 per cent) as the person who was seen as the best to lead Jamaica at this time.
Seaga was trailed by Golding (7.7 per cent), while the PNP's Portia Simpson Miller (4.3 per cent) and Peter Phillips (2.2 per cent), stood in line behind Patterson.
Up to April of this year, Seaga was seen by 32 per cent of the people as the best choice as prime minister, against 24 per cent for Patterson, whose popularity had plummeted disastrously over the previous two years, to the point where it was Simpson Miller and Seaga who were being touted for a prime ministerial race.
In the election campaign, the PNP has hammered away at Seaga's image, apparently with success, while at the same time claiming that it has 'solid achievements' to show for its 13 years in office despite Opposition criticisms that it has failed to provide growth or jobs while running up a huge national debt.
In fact, in the late September/October poll, the PNP (48.8 per cent) enjoyed a 15 percentage point lead over the JLP (33.4 per cent) as the party that Jamaicans believed was the best to lead the country at this time.
Question:
Who do you believe is the person best suited to run the country at this time?
Answers:
P J Patterson........................................................................................41.1%
Edward Seaga.....................................................................................21.5%
Bruce Golding.......................................................................................7.7%
Portia Simpson Miller...........................................................................4.3%
Peter Phillips.........................................................................................2.2%
Audley Shaw.........................................................................................0.6%
Antonnette Haughton............................................................................0.4%
Hyacinth Bennett..................................................................................0.4%
Others...................................................................................................0.4%
Don't Know........................................................................................21.4%
............................................................................................................100%
In the August Stone polls we asked the question, Which political leader would you like to see become prime minister at the next elections?
August Observer/Stone Polls
Edward Seaga.....................................................................................30.7%
P J Patterson........................................................................................29.8%
Portia Simpson Miller.........................................................................13.2%
Peter Phillips.........................................................................................4.2%
Antonnette Haughton............................................................................4.1%
Hyacinth Bennett..................................................................................0.6%
Others...................................................................................................2.2%
Don't know.........................................................................................15.2%
............................................................................................................100%
Stone comment:
What the percentages indicate is a steady increase in support for P J Patterson's position as prime minister.
In August, he scored 29.8%. In September, he had 33.3% and in the
Stone comment:
82% of our respondents told us they were enumerated. 78% of enumerated voters have told us they intend to vote in the next elections. Of the remaining 22%, 10% have said they will not be voting, while 12% are undecided on whether they will be voting.
It is unlikely that this 12% will be voting.
Since this poll, the JLP kept a mass meeting in Half-Way-Tree square and it was reported that the crowd was larger than the one which attended the PNP meeting of a few weeks ago. Based on this, there is a school of thought that the JLP has been gaining rapid support in the last few days.
In our last poll prior to the October 16 elections, this will be determined. present October polls Patterson scored 41.1% as the person best suited to be prime minister.
At the same time, Opposition Leader Edward Seaga's position as the person best suited to be prime minister has been slipping from 30.7% in the August polls to 21.9% in September and 21.5% in the present October Stone polls.
New re-entrant in the JLP, Bruce Golding, is third on the list in the present polls at 7.7%
Question:
Which party is best suited to run the country at this time?
Stone comment:
While the PNP's rating as party best suited to run the country has shown steady and significant increases since the August polls, the JLP's position has been wavering, moving from 35.9% in August, down to 28.6%, then increasing to 33.4% in the October polls.
While the JLP has increased its rating from the September poll, the PNP's rating in the October polls is 15 percentage points ahead of the JLP's position as the party best suited to run the country.
Question:
If an election should be held now, which party would you vote for?
Sept-Oct Mid-Sept Aug
PNP 40.6% 37% 37.8%
JLP 31.6% 31.7% 34.4%
NDM/NJA 0.7% 0.2% 0.2%
UPP 1.0% 1.2% 2.0%
Won't say 2.4% 2.2% --
Don't know 1.8% (Undecided) 14.9% 15.6%
Not voting 10% 12.8% 10.0%
Undecided on voting 12% -- --
................................................100%
Stone comment:
Usually the Stone team carries out its sampling on weekends -- Saturdays and Sundays -- sometimes completing on Mondays. Sampling for these polls started on Saturday, September 28, and continued on Sunday, September 29. Due to the rainfalls associated with Tropical Storm Lili, the team did not complete the 1,200 islandwide interviews planned on these dates, and so went back into the field on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, October 1 to 3, to complete the process.
The polls published today are the result of that process.